Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Nus Ghani  (CON)
County/Area:East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:80,291
Turnout:73.3%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON34,74659.1%
LAB14,10724.0%
LIB5,8089.9%
Green2,2633.8%
UKIP1,5432.6%
OTH3500.6%
CON Majority20,63935.1%

See overview of other seats in South East.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Tunbridge Wells

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tunbridge Wells, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Tunbridge WellsTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		New SeatCON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		NAT
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
Tunbridge WellsBrenchley and Horsmonden3,852Weald of Kent1,854583154703900462,746
Tunbridge WellsBroadwater2,902Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,276686179694500402,295
Tunbridge WellsCapel1,719Tonbridge768262191181900171,275
Tunbridge WellsCulverden4,994Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,2991,13545011723300534,287
Tunbridge WellsGoudhurst and Lamberhurst3,340Weald of Kent1,781484177623700372,578
Tunbridge WellsHawkhurst and Sandhurst4,402Weald of Kent2,159705256905400563,320
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood East2,913Weald of Kent1,381540178653800262,228
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood West2,755Weald of Kent1,177595152593200212,036
Tunbridge WellsPantiles and St Mark's4,745Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,2067683489118800413,642
Tunbridge WellsPark5,054Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,1949614341017400463,810
Tunbridge WellsPembury4,268Tonbridge1,980755261905100403,177
Tunbridge WellsRusthall3,371Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,1918842937414500332,620
Tunbridge WellsSherwood4,391Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,8841,2162971066400453,612
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough and High Brooms4,981Tonbridge1,8021,6043351146600433,964
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough North3,051Tonbridge1,414533206603600342,283
Tunbridge WellsSpeldhurst and Bidborough4,463Tonbridge2,208532250734500323,140
Tunbridge WellsSt James'3,753Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,4381,032591986900453,273
Tunbridge WellsSt John's4,811Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,8421,11560310620500473,918
 Total69,765 30,85414,3905,3551,4631,4400070254,204

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tunbridge Wells seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wealden

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wealden, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WealdenTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		New SeatCON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		NAT
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
WealdenBuxted and Maresfield4,723Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,40854918255660003,260
WealdenChiddingly and East Hoathly2,421Lewes and West Wealden1,23846811278410001,937
WealdenCrowborough East3,830Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,91272741957690003,184
WealdenCrowborough Jarvis Brook1,883Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough78545227335410001,586
WealdenCrowborough North4,430Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,27976824368730003,431
WealdenCrowborough St Johns2,021Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,0192097623260001,353
WealdenCrowborough West3,842Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,8166002101391950002,960
WealdenDanehill / Fletching / Nutley3,946Lewes and West Wealden2,128591292125640003,200
WealdenForest Row3,722Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,884627318512390003,119
WealdenFramfield2,147Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,1513418926310001,638
WealdenFrant / Withyham3,933Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,0395841931282070003,151
WealdenHailsham Central and North4,729Lewes and West Wealden1,84078658470760003,356
WealdenHailsham East1,894Lewes and West Wealden1,02850511933380001,723
WealdenHailsham South and West6,168Lewes and West Wealden2,9431,3673872501180005,065
WealdenHartfield2,039Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,02627622424320001,582
WealdenHellingly5,555Lewes and West Wealden1,97581564273830003,588
WealdenHoram2,064Lewes and West Wealden1,13029010728340001,589
WealdenMayfield2,122Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,0563309726340001,543
WealdenRotherfield1,924Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,0522409023310001,436
WealdenUckfield Central2,272Lewes and West Wealden98240731736410001,783
WealdenUckfield New Town2,006Lewes and West Wealden753455268751070001,658
WealdenUckfield North4,212Lewes and West Wealden1,521918621157750003,292
WealdenUckfield Ridgewood2,743Lewes and West Wealden1,07548821893420001,916
WealdenWadhurst3,918Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,9896071991261960003,117
 Total78,544 37,02913,4006,2801,7991,95900060,467

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wealden seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough

The new seat of Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		Old Seat CON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		NAT
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
Tunbridge WellsBroadwater3,182Tunbridge Wells1,276686179694500402,295
Tunbridge WellsCulverden5,942Tunbridge Wells2,2991,13545011723300534,287
Tunbridge WellsPantiles and St Mark's5,049Tunbridge Wells2,2067683489118800413,642
Tunbridge WellsPark5,281Tunbridge Wells2,1949614341017400463,810
Tunbridge WellsRusthall3,631Tunbridge Wells1,1918842937414500332,620
Tunbridge WellsSherwood5,007Tunbridge Wells1,8841,2162971066400453,612
Tunbridge WellsSt James'4,536Tunbridge Wells1,4381,032591986900453,273
Tunbridge WellsSt John's5,431Tunbridge Wells1,8421,11560310620500473,918
WealdenBuxted and Maresfield4,391Wealden2,40854918255660003,260
WealdenCrowborough East4,287Wealden1,91272741957690003,184
WealdenCrowborough Jarvis Brook2,136Wealden78545227335410001,586
WealdenCrowborough North4,620Wealden2,27976824368730003,431
WealdenCrowborough St Johns1,822Wealden1,0192097623260001,353
WealdenCrowborough West3,985Wealden1,8166002101391950002,960
WealdenForest Row4,200Wealden1,884627318512390003,119
WealdenFramfield2,207Wealden1,1513418926310001,638
WealdenFrant / Withyham4,243Wealden2,0395841931282070003,151
WealdenHartfield2,131Wealden1,02627622424320001,582
WealdenMayfield2,079Wealden1,0563309726340001,543
WealdenRotherfield1,936Wealden1,0522409023310001,436
WealdenWadhurst4,195Wealden1,9896071991261960003,117
 Total80,291 34,74614,1075,8081,5432,2630035058,817

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

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